Nate, as I mentioned on Twitter, I believed you probably did a wonderful job breaking down this hand, each from a theoretical and an exploitative perspective. I actually recognize the depth you went into. Additionally, it was an incredible solo efficiency!
I did have a couple of factors of criticism, nonetheless. I’ll break them down by avenue.
Preflop: You talked about that since Altman 3bet QJo on this spot, he may simply as simply have any of the Broadway combos and is due to this fact liable to 3betting method an excessive amount of, particularly utilizing this considerably bigger 3bet dimension. However what this evaluation fails to contemplate is that Altman — a really expert and achieved participant in his personal proper — is probably going controlling his frequencies in such a method that he’s not overdoing it right here. I’d bet he even has some form of randomization technique for stay poker to regulate his aggression. Anyway, whether or not QJo belongs in an optimum 3betting vary on this spot is one other query solely. I feel it’s in all probability advantageous at some very low frequency, and particularly when utilizing a bigger 3bet dimension that must be extra polarized, QJo serves properly as a hand that has good blockers however may safely fold to a 4bet. However when you by no means 3bet QJo in Altman’s spot that’s in all probability completely advantageous, too.
Flop: Nothing to say right here!
Flip: You mentioned you’d lean in the direction of a bet on the flip, and also you gave good causes for doing so. I feel in a money recreation, it’s a kind of spots the place we will fortunately bet for worth, and begrudgingly name off a check-jam, realizing we have now four outs to the nuts, and our Qs helps as properly. Nonetheless, on this match state of affairs, Altman must be very excited about preserving his chips. It might be +cEV to bet-call the flip right here, however it’s not essentially one of the best ways for him to maximise his probabilities of going deep within the match. He’s an incredible participant with an enormous chip stack, so he must be excited about sustaining that stack extra so than moving into skinny spots in opposition to Phil Ivey for basically his match life.
River: You mentioned that Altman bet 40% pot on the river, however he truly bet nearer to 70% pot (195ok into 295ok — you mentioned 195ok into 430ok). I truly suppose that makes an enormous distinction when it comes to Ivey’s determination right here. Towards a 40% sizing, Altman would conceivably be doing that with loads of sturdy worth in addition to skinny worth fingers, so Ivey’s 9s9 does a lot better by check-jamming as a result of it a) blocks Altman’s strongest fingers, and b) can get loads of Altman’s skinny worth to fold. Nonetheless, in opposition to a 70% pot bet, Altman’s vary is rather more polarized. The 9s9 nonetheless has the identical blocker worth, however when it check-jams, it will get far fewer fingers to fold as a proportion of Altman’s vary than it could vs. the 40% dimension. The worth fingers within the vary are nonetheless sturdy sufficient to name, and Altman is forward of the bluffs anyway. Positive, the 9s9 decreases Altman’s worth combos by fairly a bit, however this reality IMO makes calling the river bet higher than check-jamming. (Although I’m undecided calling is smart, both).
Once more, thanks for an incredible podcast. Trying ahead to listening to what you need to say!