The next are previews with betting suggestions for Spherical 18 of the 2019 AFL season.
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Friday, July 19
The stage of the season has arrived the place we are able to start making definitive predictive statements like: whoever wins this sport on Friday night time will play finals soccer in 2019. It might not be true, nevertheless it’s most likely extremely prone to be correct (notably if the Crows win). The stakes appear to go up a notch for sure video games from this level onwards, and there are a number of of these this weekend, starting with Friday night time’s conflict between the seventh-placed Crows and the eighth-placed Bombers. The Bombers have now gained three-in-a-row to noticeably stake their declare for a finals berth, whereas the Crows bounced again from their Showdown disappointment by annihilating the Suns. It gave them a much-needed proportion enhance, which is all that at present separates them from the Bombers. Essendon are going to search out the going robust now that key defender Michael Hurley shall be lacking, however thankfully they’re nicely stocked in that space and have a succesful alternative within the similarly-named Michael Hartley. The larger problem would be the omissions of Orazio Fantasia and Zac Clarke. The Crows are set to welcome again ahead Tom Lynch, who’s as vital as anybody to the Adelaide sport plan.
As a substitute of claiming the winner of this sport will play finals, a greater assertion is likely to be: no less than certainly one of these two golf equipment will play finals. And because the winner can have a sport’s head begin on the opposite with simply 5 video games remaining, you’d be favouring whichever membership that’s. I feel it’ll be the Crows — they’re at residence, have re-gained a number of vital gamers, and are up in opposition to an Essendon aspect minus Hurley and with out a ruckman.
Betting tip: Adelaide (-13.5) @ $1.88 (TopBetta)
Saturday, July 20
And right here’s a second high-stakes sport: Port are a sport behind the Crows and the Bombers, and are vying for a spot within the backside half of the eight, whereas the Tigers wish to consolidate their high eight spot while doubtlessly pushing up into the highest 4. Richmond appear to be constructing some actually good kind now, and it’s a good time of yr to do it. Tom Lynch bagged one other three targets on the weekend, taking his season tally as much as 37, whereas Jack Riewoldt made a profitable return from his second long-term harm of the yr. The match in opposition to GWS loomed as a troublesome one, however they dispatched of the Giants with ease. This one is the same contest: Port are a very good staff, however the Tigers ought to have the sting on the MCG. The principle concern for Richmond could be the scheduling: they’ve been unfortunate sufficient to face Port on their ‘on-week’. It’s now been 9 weeks Port have saved up an alternating win/loss sample, and whereas they’d be blissful to proceed it right into a tenth week, they’re going to want to finish the pattern in the event that they’re to play finals footy.
I anticipate this to be a very fascinating sport of footy that’s doubtless be performed at frenetic tempo, however I anticipate the doubtless final result to be a 5 or 6 objective Richmond win. Port lacking Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert and Ryan Burton most likely ruins their probabilities — the Tigers needs to be too good on the ‘G and look to be constructing actually properly in the intervening time.
Betting tip: Richmond By 25+ @ $1.87 (TopBetta)
It’s not typically that Carlton enter a sport as scorching favorite however that’s the scenario they’ll be on this week after they host the Suns at Marvel Stadium on Saturday. Remarkably, from their final 5 video games the Blues have gained three, and misplaced two by a mixed margin of 11 factors. That’s a robust kind line, and it’s about to get even higher; you’d anticipate the new-look Blues to make mild work of the deteriorating Suns.
The Suns have misplaced their final two video games by 92 and 95 factors. That’s critically ugly, and positively not sustainable for Stuart Dew and his teaching employees. It gained’t be that dangerous in opposition to the Blues, nevertheless it wouldn’t in any respect shock in the event that they nonetheless managed to lose by 8-10 targets. And the dangerous information is, realistically, in the event that they drop this sport they gained’t win one other in 2019. However despite the fact that this week might be their greatest probability for one more win, they only don’t look anyplace close to it in the intervening time; they’re fully uncompetitive. It’s going to be one other robust week for the Suns in the event that they’re handed a big loss by the Blues, and I anticipate that’s precisely what’s going to occur: the Suns are doing their greatest to limp to the end line, nevertheless it’s nonetheless a great distance out of attain.
Betting tip: Carlton By 25+ @ $1.72 (TopBetta)
That is one other of the weekend’s massively vital video games, and maybe the toughest to foretell. Neither staff is in nice kind, however each have been near premiership favourites at some stage of the yr. The Giants have now had three consecutive losses, and with a knee harm set to sideline star midfielder Stephen Coniglio for quite a lot of weeks, issues are trying decidedly grim. The Pies have been in a position to overcome their mini-form droop with a crucial one-point victory over the Eagles on Friday night time, and whereas it’s inconceivable to know simply how vital the win shall be till all the things is claimed and finished, it’s honest to say it was Collingwood’s most defining win this yr.
Each side have been dealt a blended bag on the choice desk, with the Giants dropping Coniglio however re-gaining Shane Mumford and Jeremy Finlayson, whereas the Pies lose all of Darcy Moore, Jamie Elliott and Levi Greenwood, however get Jeremy Howe, Taylor Adams and Travis Varcoe again. It’s arduous to inform whether or not that’s a web win or loss. Both means, the Pies gained’t be straightforward opponents for the Giants as they appear to have a team-lifting win, just like the one Collingwood had final week. I reckon it’ll be a ripping sport of footy — I’m going with the Pies in a thriller.
Betting tip: Collingwood to win @ $1.97 (BetFair)
The Lions continued their spectacular streak of kind with one other victory over a robust opponent, this time dispatching of Port Adelaide by a lazy 48 factors. The Lions are the true deal and are, considerably stunningly, proper within the hunt for a high two end, which might give them a house last and put them in a very sturdy place to safe a grand last berth. Whereas that is likely to be getting too far forward of issues, proper now it seems to be a sensible final result: if the Pies lose to GWS, which might be a 50/50 proposition, and the Lions beat North Melbourne, which you’d assume they’ll, the Lions would bounce as much as second place and from there it’s theirs to lose with simply 5 weeks remaining.
North will throw all the things at Brisbane although, having proven nice combativeness every week since Rhyce Shaw took over as caretaker coach. They have been so near beating the Bombers and being within the hunt for a high eight spot, however the loss will most likely make issues arduous from right here. Nonetheless, they’re greater than able to taking it as much as the very best groups and I anticipate they’ll make the Lions earn their victory on this one: I’m going with Brisbane by a few targets.
Betting tip: Brisbane By 1-39 @ $2.20 (TopBetta)
Fremantle’s final probability to show their season round was final week in opposition to Hawthorn, and regardless of the very best efforts of inspirational skipper Nat Fyfe, the Dockers simply weren’t ok. They’ve obtained some respectable causes for the fast decline over the previous month: the variety of long-term accidents they’ve suffered to key gamers would curtail most different golf equipment as nicely. However now they should put an finish to it and get again on the winner’s record. It needs to be comparatively easy too: they’re at residence, and up in opposition to a staff beneath them on the ladder.
The Swans may even be determined for a win after dropping one they need to’ve gained final week in opposition to the Blues. That loss has snuffed out any distant probability they’d of sneaking into eighth place, however there’s nonetheless a lot for the Swans to play for; this week, it’s largely about pleasure.
I feel this shall be an in depth sport of footy, however one which most likely gained’t be all that fast-paced and thrilling, extra of a sluggish grind. It’s going to be robust for Freo with out Fyfe, however I anticipate the Dockers to get the sting over the Swans within the latter a part of the sport; up till then it needs to be pretty tight.
Betting tip: Fremantle By 1-39 @ $2.33 (UniBet)
Sunday, July 21
The Hawks have put themselves again inside attain of the highest eight with two actually spectacular wins over the previous fortnight. First, they beat the Pies in an arm-wrestle, then they dominated the Dockers in Launceston. They face the ladder-leading Cats this week, and regardless of the unlikelihood of a victory, in the event that they did handle to beat their fierce rivals they’d be formally again within the finals race. The battles between Geelong and Hawthorn have all the time been inclined to show into epic contests, and whereas the Cats appear the significantly better staff in 2019, you positively wouldn’t write Alistair Clarkson’s males off on Sunday afternoon.
I reckon it’ll be a reasonably comparable sport to their match earlier within the yr: the primary quarter was tight, the second nonetheless comparatively shut, however the Cats obtained out to a 5 or 6 objective lead early within the second half and saved the Hawks at arm’s size for the remainder of the day. That’s most likely the place these two groups are at; the Hawks are well-drilled and chronic, however not fairly expert sufficient, whereas the Cats have sufficient of a break on the remainder of the competitors that they will afford to take a seat in second gear and never take any pricey dangers. That’s what I anticipate on Sunday: the Cats to win this by a few targets with out having to play their greatest footy.
Betting tip: Geelong to win @ $1.38 (BetFair)
There’s a critically gloomy risk looming for the Demons this week: they may discover themselves 17th on the ladder, above solely the Suns, the membership who’re at present copping 100-point beltings. That may occur if the Blues beat the Suns on Saturday, after which the Demons lose to West Coast. Each of these outcomes are what you’d name doubtless, and the Dees will understand it. All they must do to keep away from that taking place is come out firing on Sunday and beat the Eagles. However that’s a lot simpler stated than finished. West Coast shall be filthy after their residence loss to Collingwood, and due to that this turns into a must-win contest. In the event that they drop a straightforward one within the run residence it might price the Eagles a house last and doubtlessly a premiership, so that you’d anticipate they’ll be extremely motivated this week. The Dees weren’t dangerous in opposition to the Canine on Sunday, however they’re clearly a median footy aspect in the intervening time, notably with out a spearhead up ahead.
The Alice Springs issue may throw the Eagles off their customary preparation, however I’d anticipate they’ll regulate fairly shortly and begin this contest strongly. The foot harm to returning ruck Nic Naitanui is a bitter blow, however the Eagles proved final season they’re able to overlaying him. I’m considering it’ll be a reasonably low-scoring sport, however the Eagles won’t ever be critically threatened.
Betting tip: West Coast to win @ $1.47 (Guess365)
St Kilda’s fourth consecutive loss, and tenth for the season, consigned coach Alan Richardson to the teaching scrap heap. It was a sport they have been by no means going to win, taking part in in opposition to the Cats in Geelong, they usually truly carried out moderately nicely regardless of the loss. Richardson stated the sport that ended his tenure was truly a number of weeks again when the Saints have been totally outplayed by North, however to sincere, his papers have been doubtless stamped lengthy earlier than that sport. Ex-Carlton coach Brett Ratten will take over as care-taker coach, and I’m anticipating him to have a very constructive affect on the staff. Of the opposite two golf equipment who’ve dumped their coach this yr, each have gained the next week; will the Saints be capable of uphold the pattern?
It’ll be a troublesome sport in opposition to the Canine, who’re in good kind in the intervening time, however the Saints are completely an opportunity of inflicting an upset. The Canine have struggled in opposition to lesser groups, and regardless of getting over the road in opposition to Melbourne final week, they didn’t shut the Dees out of the sport by any means. They’ve additionally misplaced midfielder Toby McLean, whereas celebrity Marcus Bontempelli is recovering from a sore ankle. The Canine are the higher staff so I’d anticipate they get the win right here, nevertheless it wouldn’t in any respect shock me to see the competition go proper all the way down to the ultimate siren.
Betting tip: Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.47 (BetEasy)
Greatest Bets of the Spherical
Adelaide (-13.5) @ $1.88 (TopBetta)